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Summer Forecast: La Niña

Cool Pacific Waters May Not Affect Upcoming Hurricane Season

July 1, 2006

Like their more dramatic cousins El Niños, La Niñas -- the periodic cooling of ocean waters -- can have a dramatic impact on hurricanes, meteorologists say. The current La Niña, though, seems to have faded, so it may not be a primary cause in strengthening hurricanes this year. Still, meteorologists say people in hurricane-prone regions should brace for as many as six major storms in the coming months.

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Science Insider

Science behind the news is funded by a generous grant from the NSF

BACKGROUND: Scientists have detected La Niña this year, and this could have effects on spring and summer weather in the United States, not to mention the upcoming hurricane season.

GIRLS AND BOYS: La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, which is a condition of warming in the Pacific warming. La Niña is a slight cooling of the Pacific Ocean, and typically creates more rainfall across Indonesia and northern Australia and the Amazon basin. The last La Niña lasted from 2000 to 2001.

ABOUT HURRICANES: A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, a low-pressure system that usually forms in the tropics and is accompanied by a counterclockwise circulation of winds near the earth's surface. Storms are considered hurricanes when their wind travels faster than 74 mph. Every hurricane arises from the combination of warm water and moist warm air. Tropical thunderstorms drift out over warm ocean waters and encounter converging winds from near the equator. Warm, moist air from the ocean surface rises rapidly, encounters cooler air, and condensed into water vapor to form storm clouds, releasing heat in the process. This heat causes the condensation process to continue, so that more and more warm moist air is drawn into the developing storm, creating a wind pattern that spirals around the relatively calm center, or eye, of the storm, much like water swirling down a drain. The winds keep circling and accelerating to form a classic cyclone pattern.

RATING HURRICANES: Hurricanes are categorized according to the strength of their winds according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. They are rated from lowest wind speeds (Category 1) to highest (Category 5). But even lower category storms can cause a great deal of damage, mostly from storm surges – when water is pushed towards the show by strong winds and combines with normal tides to create hurricane storm tides – and the resulting flooding. The worst devastation from hurricane Katrina, for example, occurred when flooding caused the New Orleans levees to fail.

The American Meteorological Society contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

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Did you know?...

  • En Niño means "the little boy" or "Christ child" in Spanish. La Niña means "the little girl." La Niña is sometimes referred to as El Viejo, a "cold event."
  • In an average three-year period, roughly five hurricanes strike the United States coastline, killing 50 to 100 people anywhere from Texas to Maine.

More information on this story

NOAA/National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
Camp Springs, MD
Tel: 301-763-8000

American Meteorological Society
45 Beacon Street
Boston, MA 02108-3693
Tel: 617-227-2425


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