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Weather System Protects Homeland Security

Meteorologists Use Weather Knowledge to Predict Path of Toxic Spills

May 1, 2005

Homeland security officials are tapping researchers' capability to predict the paths of toxic waste spills and hazardous airborne particles. Using computer science and mathematics, along with information on the wind and other climate, they can make estimates of how the toxin will disperse and where the plume will go.

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What is a dirty bomb?

Science behind the news is funded by a generous grant from the NSF

Half nuclear weapon, half conventional explosive, a dirty bomb is cause for concern because it could potentially spread radioactive material over a broad region. But dirty bombs aren't as scary as you might think.

Basically, a small amount of radioactive material is surrounding by a conventional explosive, such as TNT. When the bomb detonates, the radioactive material becomes airborne and scatters across the surrounding area.

A dirty bomb is not "nuclear" in the sense of an atomic or hydrogen bomb, or even a nuclear power plant. There is no fission (splitting of the atomic nucleus) or fusion (combining atomic nuclei). Instead, highly unstable versions of some radioactive elements decay rapidly, emitting rays of energy, such as gamma rays that damage living cells, in the process.

It's the radiation dosage that determines how much damage is likely to be done. The Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors of nuclear bombs were exposed to enormous doses of radiation -- exactly how much depended on how far they were from the center of the blast. In contrast, small amounts of radiation reach us every day from the Sun, and we are sometimes exposed to carefully calculated doses of radiation when we get an X-ray or a radiation treatment.

Dirty bombs, while dangerous, are unlikely to emit radiation in highly concentrated amounts. That's because the bigger the conventional bomb that distributes the radioactive material, the better it will spread. More people will be exposed to a lower dose of radiation in a larger explosion; a smaller explosion would expose a few people to a very high dose. It's still cause for concern, but would not necessarily lead to a sharp increase in cancer deaths, for example.

The most likely source of radioactive material for a dirty bomb would be the radioactive isotopes used to sterilize food and medical equipment, or to treat cancer. The most highly radioactive are cobalt-60 and cesium-137. But handling these materials may also kill the bomb maker. Unshielded cesium-137, for example, could kill the handler in minutes unless it is shielded with lead. This type of bomb would be large and unwieldy, and easily detectable by security systems.

The American Meteorological Society contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

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Did you know?...

  • All matter is to some slight extent radioactive -- even the carbon atoms in our own bodies!
  • A recent episode of the hit TV series Numbers focused on the theft of radioactive material (specifically, cesium-137) that was used to build a dirty bomb.

More information on this story

Martha J. Heil
mheil@aip.org
American Institute of Physics
Tel: 301-209-3088